Quarterback Frenzy: Mock Drafts Clash Over #1 Pick Ahead of 2026 NFL Draft

• October 7, 2025
• C Badenhorst
• 12 Comments

When John Mateer, the Oklahoma quarterback who’s currently riding the Heisman buzz, was named the No. 1 overall pick by DraftSharks, the NFL‑world sat up straight. The projection puts Mateer heading to the New Orleans Saints on April 23, 2026 – a date that feels both inevitable and wildly speculative given the fluid nature of college football. The twist is that another leading outlet, Tankathon, has its eyes glued on Indiana’s towering signal‑caller Fernando Mendoza, who they slot at the very top of the board.

Why quarterbacks dominate the 2026 class

It’s not just a case of “QB‑rich” – the talent pool this year resembles a quarterback factory on overdrive. Six to eight QBs are projected to be taken within the first 32 picks, depending on which mock you trust. That depth stems from a confluence of factors: the NCAA’s recent rule tweaks that speed up offensive tempo, a wave of dual‑threat athletes who can thread passes and run for yards, and the fact that many elite pass‑catchers chose to stay for another collegiate season rather than chase early NFL money.

For instance, Mendoza’s numbers through five games are eye‑popping: 1,208 passing yards (241.6 per game), 16 touchdowns, a single interception, 73.0 % completion and a 197.8 passer rating. Those stats sit on par with the best NFL starters in 2022, and they’re backed by a 6‑foot‑5 frame that screams durability.

Mateer, by contrast, brings a Bo Nix‑style poise to the pocket with a strong arm and enough legs to turn a scramble into a 30‑yard gain on a whim. His 65 % completion rate on 3,139 yards and 29 touchdowns last season showed he can handle a pro‑level workload.

Top mock drafts and their projections

The most talked‑about mock from DraftSharks puts Mateer at No. 1, followed by a surprise edge‑rusher T.J. Parker (Clemson) to the New York Jets. Their rationale? The Jets need an immediate pass‑rush upgrade, and Parker’s blend of defensive‑tackle size with edge speed makes him a top‑five candidate.

Meanwhile, Tankathon flips the script: Mendoza goes first, Dante Moore (Oregon) is second, and the third spot belongs to defensive lineman Peter Woods (Clemson). The model also throws in a second‑round future trade that could bounce a quarterback back to the Cleveland Browns, who, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) simulations, hold the top overall slot in a majority of runs.

ESPN’s own mock, crafted by Field Yates, admits, "A lot can and will change in the next eight months." He points to last year’s surprise when Carson Beck, once a first‑overall favorite, chose to stay at Miami after leaving Georgia. The takeaway? Mock drafts are guideposts, not crystal balls.

Team needs, trades, and the shifting draft board

Only 30 franchises have a first‑round pick this year because the Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons dealt theirs away in the 2025 draft. That scarcity fuels a flurry of trade chatter. The Browns, who already own the No. 1 slot in many FPI scenarios, could flip it to the New York Giants for a package that includes a future second‑rounder and a proven linebacker.

Speaking of the Giants, they’re eyeing offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor (Alabama). Proctor’s quick feet and raw power make him a blind‑side anchor in the eyes of many scouts, and a top‑three slot would lock him in for the next decade.

Down south, the Tennessee Titans appear set to snatch edge‑rusher Keldric Faulk (Auburn) with the fourth pick, creating a cluster of defensive‑front talent in the top five.

Statistical deep dive on the quarterback frontrunners

• Fernando Mendoza (Indiana): 241.6 yd/game, 3.20 TD/game, 0.20 INT/game, 73.0 % completions, 197.8 passer rating.
• Dante Moore (Oregon): 242.0 yd/game, 2.80 TD/game, 0.20 INT/game, 74.6 % completions, 183.5 passer rating.
• John Mateer (Oklahoma): 65 % completion on 3,139 yds, 29 TDs, 0 INTs (last season), dual‑threat upside with 340 scramble yards.
• LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina): heavier version of Jalen Milroe, 20 lb more, improved accuracy and ball placement; projected as a fantasy sleeper.

What these numbers tell us is that teams have a measurable trade‑off between pure pocket presence and dual‑threat versatility. The Saints, who have long chased a franchise QB, might favor Mateer’s poise, while the Browns could leap for the sheer athletic ceiling of Mendoza.

What could change before the April 23 draft?

Injuries are the biggest wild card. A single ankle sprain or a shoulder issue can tumble a top‑prospect from No. 1 to the second half of the round. Then there’s the transfer market – remember how Carson Beck’s surprise move shook the draft landscape? A similar headline‑grabbing switch from a Power‑5 school to a Group‑of‑Five program could either boost a player’s stock (by showing adaptability) or hurt it (by raising questions about competition level).

Coaching changes also matter. If a new offensive coordinator arrives at Oklahoma, Mateer’s supporting cast could look different, shifting his projected ceiling. Conversely, a defensive‑scheme shift at Clemson could push Parker up or down the edge‑rusher ladder.

Finally, the FPI simulations that ESPN relies on will be refreshed weekly as college games roll out. Those models factor in strength of schedule, win‑loss records, and even weather conditions – a sudden loss to an unranked opponent can shave points off a QB’s projected draft value.